The Condorcet Jury Theorem states that if each member of a group independently votes correctly on a binary question with a probability greater than one half, then the probability that a majority vote reaches the correct decision increases toward one as the size of the group grows. Named for the Marquis de Condorcet, it is a foundational result of social choice theory offering a mathematical justification for collective decision-making by majority vote.
Facts
StatementIf each voter in a group independently votes correctly on a binary question with probability greater than one half, then adding more voters increases the probability that a majority vote is correct, and in the limit the probability that the majority votes correctly approaches 1 as the number of voters increases. 1 Classification
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Source Condorcet's jury theorem - Wikipedia
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Source Condorcet's jury theorem - Wikipedia
Sources
1. Condorcet's jury theorem - Wikipedia
Lead section
In the limit, the probability that the majority votes correctly approaches 1 as the number of voters increases.
Lead section, second paragraph
The theorem was first expressed by the Marquis de Condorcet in his 1785 work Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions.
In Branch: Probability and Statistics, Lead paragraph
Condorcet's jury theorem is a statistical theorem about the probability of a given group of individuals arriving at a correct decision.
Proved By: Marquis de Condorcet, Lead
The theorem was first expressed by the Marquis de Condorcet in his 1785 work Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions
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