Rule of Succession

In probability theory, the rule of succession is a formula introduced in the eighteenth century by Pierre-Simon Laplace while treating what is known as the sunrise problem. It is still used today, particularly to estimate an underlying probability from a small number of observations, including cases where an event has not yet been observed to occur at all within a finite sample. The rule answers a specific question: if an experiment that can succeed or fail is repeated n times independently and yields s successes, what is the probability that the next repetition will also succeed. This description is adapted from Wikipedia contributors under CC BY-SA 4.0; changes were made. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/